The Middle East is once again confronting a period of profound uncertainty, with renewed military activity, threats to critical infrastructure, disruption to major shipping routes and growing concerns over the safety and mobility of millions of residents and expatriates across the region.
For those living in the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East, the question is increasingly straightforward but difficult to answer: Where is it still safe to live, work and travel — and what should expatriates be doing to protect themselves and their families?
The first point that needs to be emphasised is that the Middle East cannot be regarded as one uniform security environment.
There is a significant difference between living in a country where there is active military conflict and living in a country where the principal risk is that a wider regional conflict may spill over through missile or drone attacks, airspace closures, cyber disruption, energy-market shocks or interruptions to international travel.
That distinction is particularly important for expatriates.
A region divided by varying levels of risk
The current regional environment has deteriorated following renewed attacks involving Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, September 15, Houthi forces launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi targets, including Khamis Mushait, with Saudi authorities reporting casualties. Saudi forces have responded with strikes in Yemen.
At the same time, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz has once again come sharply into focus. Shipping traffic through the waterway has fallen dramatically amid the wider conflict, raising concerns about energy supplies, transportation costs and global economic stability.
The consequences are therefore not confined to the battlefield.
They are being felt in airports, financial markets, shipping lanes, oil markets and, increasingly, in the daily decisions faced by ordinary families.
The Gulf: relatively stable, but not insulated
For expatriates, the Gulf remains the region’s principal centre of economic activity and, in many respects, its most stable environment.
However, “stable” should not be confused with “risk-free”.
Qatar
Qatar remains comparatively stable from a domestic security perspective and continues to have highly developed infrastructure and emergency services.
Nevertheless, Qatar is exposed to the wider regional security environment.
The United States Embassy in Doha issued a security alert on September 1 warning that the security environment remained complex and that unforeseen escalation was possible.
International travel advice has also warned residents across the region to prepare for potential flight cancellations and periodic airspace closures.
For expatriates in Qatar, the sensible approach is therefore continued normality combined with preparedness.
There is no justification for unnecessary panic buying or abandoning everyday life. At the same time, families should have a contingency plan should air travel, communications or other essential services be disrupted.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE remains one of the region’s most important commercial and financial centres, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi continuing to attract international businesses, investors and expatriates.
However, airlines have continued to adjust schedules because of regional tensions and airspace restrictions.
For residents, the principal concern may therefore not necessarily be an immediate threat to daily life, but the possibility of sudden disruption.
A flight that appears confirmed today may be changed tomorrow.
Oman
Oman continues to benefit from its reputation for political stability and its longstanding role in regional diplomacy.
Nevertheless, the country cannot be considered completely isolated from the conflict. Diplomatic efforts concerning the Strait of Hormuz have recently been postponed, illustrating the difficulty of maintaining negotiations while military tensions remain elevated.
Oman therefore remains comparatively stable, but expatriates should continue monitoring developments closely.
Bahrain and Kuwait
Bahrain and Kuwait remain functioning Gulf states with established expatriate communities and modern infrastructure.
However, their geographical position and strategic relationships expose them to the broader regional security environment.
The same principle applies: relative stability does not mean immunity from regional developments.
Saudi Arabia: a special case
Saudi Arabia requires a more nuanced assessment.
The Kingdom is geographically large, and the security situation is not uniform across the country.
Cities and regions may experience very different levels of risk.
However, the renewed Houthi attacks mean that residents and visitors should pay particular attention to developments in southern Saudi Arabia and around strategic infrastructure.
Saudi Civil Defence has recently issued alerts affecting a number of locations, although it subsequently announced that the immediate danger had passed in several cities, including Jeddah, Yanbu, Taif and AlUla.
This illustrates an important characteristic of the present crisis: the security situation can change rapidly, even within a single country.
What about Makkah, Madinah and Umrah?
For Muslims across the world, the question of safety has an additional dimension.
Thousands of Muslims living in the Gulf and millions internationally make plans to travel to Makkah and Madinah to perform Umrah.
The current regional tensions do not automatically mean that Umrah is impossible. Makkah remains accessible to eligible pilgrims, and Saudi Arabia’s Umrah season is operating. The official Nusuk Umrah platform continues to facilitate bookings and services through approved providers.
However, prospective pilgrims should recognise that the principal risk may be disruption rather than conditions inside the holy cities themselves.
Flights are the first consideration
A pilgrim travelling from Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, South Africa, the United Kingdom or elsewhere may depend on connecting flights.
A sudden closure or restriction of regional airspace could result in:
- cancelled flights;
- delayed departures;
- missed connections;
- stranded passengers;
- rapidly increasing airfares;
- difficulties returning home;
- changes to airline schedules.
Recent regional tensions have already caused airlines to alter schedules and routes.
For this reason, pilgrims should avoid making non-refundable arrangements without carefully considering the possibility of disruption.
Pilgrims should verify arrangements before departure
Those intending to perform Umrah should check, immediately before travelling:
1. Their visa status
Ensure that the visa is valid for the intended journey.
2. Nusuk requirements
Use the official Nusuk platform and approved service providers rather than relying solely on informal agents or social-media information.
3. Airline confirmation
A booking confirmation is not necessarily a guarantee that a flight will operate.
4. Airport status
Check the departure, transit and arrival airports shortly before leaving home.
5. Accommodation
Confirm Makkah and Madinah accommodation and understand the cancellation conditions.
6. Medical requirements
Pilgrims should ensure that they are physically prepared for the demands of Umrah and carry sufficient medication and medical documentation. Health authorities emphasise the physical demands of pilgrimage and recommend that people with existing medical conditions discuss their suitability for travel with their doctor.
Do not confuse religious confidence with logistical certainty
For Muslims, the desire to visit the House of Allah is deeply personal and spiritual.
But making a prudent decision about when to travel is not a lack of faith.
It is responsible planning.
A pilgrim should ask not only:
“Can I get to Makkah?”
but also:
“Can I return home safely if the regional situation changes while I am there?”
That is particularly important for elderly pilgrims, families travelling with young children and people with medical conditions.
The countries presenting the greatest risks
The risk profile is substantially different in countries directly affected by military conflict.
Yemen
Yemen remains one of the highest-risk environments in the region.
The renewed fighting involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has further complicated an already severe security and humanitarian situation. The Houthis have also increased their strategic significance through their position around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.
For expatriates, Yemen should be regarded as a high-risk environment, and non-essential travel should be avoided.
Iran
Iran remains deeply affected by the wider regional confrontation.
The Strait of Hormuz, Iranian territory and strategic infrastructure remain particularly sensitive.
Recent maritime incidents have further demonstrated the risks facing shipping and transportation in the region.
Iraq and Syria
Both Iraq and Syria remain exposed to significant security risks arising from regional military activity, armed groups and political instability.
International travel advisories continue to classify several countries in the region, including Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen, at the highest “do not travel” level for Australian travellers.
Lebanon and the Palestinian territories
Lebanon and the Palestinian territories remain highly sensitive environments where developments can change rapidly.
The security situation may differ considerably between individual cities and regions, but the possibility of sudden escalation makes normal travel planning considerably more difficult.
A practical risk guide for expatriates
| Location | Current broad assessment | Principal concern |
| Qatar | 🟡 Relatively stable, but heightened regional risk | Regional escalation, airspace disruption |
| UAE | 🟡 Relatively stable, but heightened regional risk | Air travel and regional spill-over |
| Oman | 🟡 Comparatively stable | Regional escalation and maritime disruption |
| Kuwait | 🟡 Elevated regional exposure | Regional military escalation |
| Bahrain | 🟡 Elevated regional exposure | Regional military escalation |
| Saudi Arabia | 🟠 Varies considerably by region | Missile/drone threats and regional escalation |
| Jordan | 🟠 Elevated regional exposure | Spill-over from surrounding conflicts |
| Egypt | 🟡/🟠 Generally stable but geographically exposed | Regional spill-over and travel disruption |
| Lebanon | 🔴 High risk | Military escalation and political instability |
| Iraq | 🔴 High risk | Armed groups and regional conflict |
| Iran | 🔴 High risk | Active military and geopolitical confrontation |
| Syria | 🔴 Very high risk | Conflict and security instability |
| Yemen | 🔴 Very high risk | Active conflict and humanitarian crisis |
| Israel/Palestinian territories | 🔴 Highly variable/high risk | Continuing conflict and rapid escalation |
Important: This is a broad editorial assessment, not a substitute for a country’s official travel advisory. Risk can change within hours.
Advice to expatriates: prepare, don’t panic
For expatriates who have made the Middle East their home, the most sensible response is neither complacency nor alarm.
It is preparedness.
Keep important documents accessible
Every household should maintain readily accessible copies of:
- passports;
- residence permits;
- visas;
- employment documents;
- health and medical records;
- insurance policies;
- emergency contacts.
Digital copies should be securely backed up.
Maintain an emergency reserve
Families should maintain reasonable supplies of drinking water, essential medication, basic food, batteries, power banks and other necessities.
This does not mean panic buying.
It means ensuring that a family can manage if shops, transport or other services are temporarily disrupted.
Maintain access to money
Expatriates should ideally have access to more than one payment method.
An emergency fund, functioning bank cards and a modest amount of accessible cash can become particularly important if banking systems, ATMs or international transfers are temporarily affected.
Know where to shelter
Families should know where they would go if authorities issued an emergency warning.
The safest response during an attack is generally to follow official instructions, move indoors and stay away from windows.
Do not attempt to watch, photograph or investigate military activity.
Do not approach debris
One of the most important warnings is also one of the simplest:
Do not touch missile, drone or interception debris.
Something that appears harmless may be dangerous.
Report suspicious objects to the authorities and keep away.
Monitor official sources
During a crisis, social media can become a mixture of useful information, speculation, misinformation and deliberately misleading material.
Expatriates should prioritise:
- local government announcements;
- embassy communications;
- airport and airline announcements;
- official emergency alerts;
- established news organisations.
Do not make major decisions based solely on WhatsApp messages or unverified social-media posts.
The aviation problem
For expatriates, one of the most significant consequences of a regional crisis may be the loss of predictability in air travel.
The Middle East is one of the world’s most important aviation hubs. A disruption in one country’s airspace can have consequences far beyond its borders.
A passenger flying from Doha to Johannesburg, Dubai to London, or Muscat to Istanbul may be affected by developments hundreds of kilometres away.
The current environment has already resulted in cancellations, delays and route changes across several Gulf airlines.
Travellers should therefore consider the following:
Do not leave for the airport without checking the latest flight status.
Do not assume that a flight will operate simply because it was scheduled.
Allow additional time for possible rerouting.
Keep essential medication and important documents in hand luggage.
Avoid placing all essential belongings in checked baggage.
The financial consequences
The Middle East crisis is also becoming an economic story.
The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and other shipping routes has implications far beyond the region.
Oil prices, fuel costs, insurance premiums, shipping rates, food prices and inflation can all be affected.
For expatriate families, this may eventually translate into higher household costs.
Companies may also face increased transportation costs, supply-chain disruption and difficulties moving employees between countries.
The economic dimension is therefore likely to become increasingly important even for expatriates who are nowhere near the conflict.
Should expatriates leave?
There is no universal answer.
An expatriate living in a relatively stable Gulf country with secure accommodation, reliable employment and a functioning local environment is in a very different position from an individual living in an active conflict zone.
The decision should be based on:
- the security situation where you live;
- your government’s travel advice;
- your employer’s contingency plan;
- your family’s circumstances;
- medical needs;
- the availability of flights;
- your ability to leave quickly if necessary.
Most importantly, make the decision before you are forced to make it.
Know where you would go.
Know how you would get there.
Know which documents you would need.
And ensure that the members of your household understand the plan.
A region living with uncertainty
For decades, expatriates have made the Middle East their home.
They have built businesses, raised families, established communities and contributed significantly to the economies of the countries in which they live.
The current crisis should not erase that reality.
But it does require a greater degree of awareness.
The Middle East is not uniformly unsafe, nor is it uniformly secure.
There are countries where daily life continues relatively normally, countries facing elevated regional risks and countries where the security environment is simply too dangerous for normal travel.
For those living in the Gulf, the wisest approach is therefore neither fear nor complacency.
It is vigilance, preparation and informed decision-making.
And for Muslims considering Umrah, the same principle applies.
The spiritual significance of the journey remains unchanged. But pilgrims should ensure that their travel arrangements, documentation, flights, accommodation and contingency plans are equally well prepared.
In an uncertain region, preparedness is not pessimism; it is prudence.
The situation remains fluid, and expatriates and prospective pilgrims should check the latest official government, airline and Saudi authorities’ guidance immediately before making or undertaking any journey.
Disclosure
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information presented, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding its completeness, accuracy, or suitability. The author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors, omissions, or for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.